?Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.? That folk saying seems apt as parents, children and teachers brace for the new school year. On Aug. 18, the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group released its eighth report since the pandemic began. ?Dire,? is how Professor Caroline Colijn, who co-founded the group, described the possible trend lines of this fourth wave.
The experts report that COVID-19 infections are doubling every nine days in B.C., less vaccinated areas are seeing higher growth rates than more vaccinated regions, and that vaccinations aren?t ?decoupling? hospitalization and ICU rates from case numbers. As well, the report warns that children are being disproportionately affected because, while children under 10 are nine per cent of the province?s population, they account for 36 per cent of the unvaccinated population. ?One of the projections is that this school year will not look the same as last school year,? Colijn told Maclean?s. For parents who endured months of upheaval as classes flipped from in-person to online, and as runny noses and COVID-19 exposures meant kids had to get tests and self-isolate, Colijn offers few words of comfort for what could unfold when schools reopen. ?It may be worse because the Delta is more transmissible,? she says.
?Given that kids under 12 are not vaccinated and that the Delta variant is highly transmissible, that could mean a much higher level of risk in schools than we had last year, because last year we were all distancing and the...